Are these trying times for NC State football? Yes!

Earle Edwards

                Imagine for a moment or maybe just a fleeting millisecond, it’s the summer of 2030, and to the surprise of many, Dave Doeren announces his retirement just prior to his 18th season as N.C. State’s head football coach. To have such a thought would be more than a simple taxing-on-the-brain, especially at this point in the 2019 season, as Doeren approaches the end of his 7th year with the Wolfpack.

Dave Doeren

                It’s trying times, such as the 4-6 overall and 1-5 Atlantic Coast Conference records with two games remaining, when knowing Wolfpack fans can only hope Doeren turns out to be as successful as Earle Edwards who led the Wolfpack for 17 years, 1954-70.

                Edwards had a rocky start in Raleigh, especially in ACC play. In his first six seasons, the Wolfpack won nine conference games, lost 22, and tied three, a 28.1% ACC win rate. To his credit, in his seventh year, the Wolfpack was 4-1-1 against the ACC and upped the ratio to 34.2%. Rocky at best for seven seasons except in 1957, his fourth year, when the Wolfpack won the conference title. In those seven seasons, Edwards was 4-3 against North Carolina despite playing all but one of the seven in Chapel Hill. Even with bad overall and conference records, Edwards was a hero because of beating UNC.

                Doeren and the Wolfpack were 20-28 (41.7%) in the ACC his first six seasons, 2013-2018. With a 1-5 ACC record this year (at this writing), the head coach has a 38.9% winning mark in the league. The last two 2019 games—at Georgia Tech (2-8, 1-6) this week and at home Thanksgiving weekend against North Carolina (4-6, 3-4 with a home game against Mercer this week)—are not going to be easy. To the surprise of many, the Wolfpack could win both, post records of 6-6 and 3-5, go to a bowl game, declare the season success, and pay Doeren a bonus. Or the Wolfpack could lose both or split, obviously.

In any event, Doeren’s record in conference games is not good and could get worse. The season appears headed to a somewhat meaningful clash with the Tar Heels. If both N.C. State and UNC win this week, the November 30 game will be a qualifier for a post-season bowl game. If that’s the case, that game could be the ultimate Toilet Bowl: two teams with losing records trying to get a sixth win to qualify just so the team can practice another three weeks and have a recruiting edge over the other.

The Wolfpack could lose both at Georgia Tech and to UNC at home, handing Doeren a 1-7 league mark, a bookend to his 0-8 start his freshman year, 2013. If that’s the case, Doeren’s Wolfpack teams will be 21-35 in seven years of ACC play, a 37.5% winning percentage, better but nearly exact to Edwards in seven years except Doeren doesn’t have an ACC title. To his credit, Doeren is 4-2 against UNC. A loss drops that to 4-3, same as Edwards. Even if N.C. State wins out, the ACC record would be 23-33 (41.1%).

                So, why would anyone hope Doeren turns out to be as good a coach as Edwards?

                From 1961 through 1970, Edwards’s Wolfpack was 42-33 (62.7%) in conference games and won four conference titles (1963, 1964, 1965, and 1968). If Doeren can match those numbers and titles, retiring in the summer of 2030 would send him out with lots of love. However, in the next 10 seasons, 2020 through 2029, Doeren’s Wolfpack must win 50 of 80 league games, an average yearly mark of 5-3, to match Edwards's final 10 years percentage. But that would not be good enough to win an ACC title much less get to the ACC title game so there would need to be at least four very good seasons and several down years. In his first seven years, Doeren’s ACC average is 3-5. Records of 5-3 for the next 10 seasons would be a huge turn-around, but still mediocre in the ACC.

                The 2019 pre-season Wolfpack hype gave fans hope for a much better season than what has transpired, especially after back-to-back overall 9-4 records and 6-2 and 5-3 ACC marks the last two seasons. There were predictions of at least eight wins, maybe nine, and some prognosticators said there could be 10 or 11 wins, even with inexperience at quarterback. Those projections, of which little or no objections came from within the football program, included three cupcake non-conference games and a Power 5 game at West Virginia, a team that pummeled the Wolfpack, 44-27, but has proven (4-6, 2-5 after 10 games) to be as bad as N.C. State.

                There has been some worthwhile reasoning offered along the way: the team is young, and injuries have weakened the squad, and he lost some key coaches. But this is Doeren’s seventh season. That’s seven recruiting classes in a program that has established itself as a pipeline of top-rated NFL picks. Shouldn’t there be many more upperclassmen than the roster shows; how about better depth than shown on the field? And, if Doeren is a good head coach, losing assistants to other programs shouldn’t matter so much.

                Much of Doeren’s recruiting success (and he has been successful especially with North Carolina talent) has been directly related to the downfall of football in Chapel Hill. But with UNC coach Larry Fedora out and Mack Brown in, that bus of out recruiting the Tar Heels has left the station and may not return.

From his start in Raleigh, Doeren has portrayed N.C. State as a program that works hard and gets dirty. But during the embarrassing 44-10 loss at Wake Forest and a second half defensive collapse in a 34-20 loss at home against Louisville, Doeren, through the eyes of television, looked like a deer in staring into headlights, not knowing which way to go. That will turn off recruits as fast as Brown will gather them in. Brown as already flipped two Wolfpack commitments this year. Are there are more to come?

Last March, Doeren was awarded a new five-year contract, a base salary of $1.625 million, matched by media rights holders and equipment suppliers boosting him over $3.2 million annually, a stupid amount to pay a football coach with an ACC average of 3-5. In a statement provided by N.C. State after the new contract—negotiated by then athletics director Debbie Yow, agreed to by Chancellor Randy Woodson, and rubber-stamped by the NCSU Board of Trustees and the UNC Board of Governors—was announced, Doeren said in part, “…we’re excited with what we’re building with N.C. State football…”

Doren’s ACC percentage is 9th best of the 12 head coaches at NC State since 1953 when the league was formed. No one should be excited about that. Pointing to overall season records and bowl games is okay if you wish to go down that road, but the Wolfpack’s non-conference schedules have included many weak sisters. Going to a bowl game is as easy as scheduling six wins, three or four non-league games and being 2-6 or 3-5 in the ACC. It’s hard not to go to a bowl game if you’re a member of the ACC. 

If Doeren is locked in as head football coach, Wolfpack fans should hope he turns out to be as good as Edwards. Dreaming of success such as of when Lou Holtz and Bo Rein combined for 31 ACC wins against 13 losses and two ties in eight straight seasons, 1972-1979, and won the Wolfpack’s last two ACC titles appears to be out of the question. Dick Sheridan (31-18-1) was the last Wolfpack coach to be above .500 against ACC teams, but Mike O’Cain (26-30), Chuck Amato (25-31), Tom O’Brien (22-26), and even Monte Kiffin (8-10) did better percentage-wise than has Doeren thus far.

Trying times for N.C. State football? Absolutely. This year anyway. Check back for an update after the 2029 season, Doeren’s 17th at N.C. State, if you can image that, even for that fleeting millisecond. Or maybe check back after the 2019 season-ender against the Tar Heels. To a fault, Wolfpack fans are forgiving of coaches that beat UNC no matter what happens in other games that season. If the Wolfpack wins that game, Doeren will ride off the field on his players shoulders and there will probably be a contract extension waiting for him. 

Yes, considering everything, these are trying times for Wolfpack football fans.

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