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| Earle Edwards |
Imagine
for a moment or maybe just a fleeting millisecond, it’s the summer of 2030,
and to the surprise of many, Dave Doeren announces his retirement just prior to
his 18th season as N.C. State’s head football coach. To have
such a thought would be more than a simple taxing-on-the-brain, especially at
this point in the 2019 season, as Doeren approaches the end of his 7th year
with the Wolfpack.
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| Dave Doeren |
It’s
trying times, such as the 4-6 overall and 1-5 Atlantic Coast Conference records
with two games remaining, when knowing Wolfpack fans can only hope Doeren turns out to be as successful as Earle Edwards
who led the Wolfpack for 17 years, 1954-70.
Edwards
had a rocky start in Raleigh, especially in ACC play. In his first six seasons,
the Wolfpack won nine conference games, lost 22, and tied three, a 28.1% ACC win
rate. To his credit, in his seventh year, the Wolfpack was 4-1-1 against the
ACC and upped the ratio to 34.2%. Rocky at best for seven seasons except in
1957, his fourth year, when the Wolfpack won the conference title. In those seven
seasons, Edwards was 4-3 against North Carolina despite playing all but one of
the seven in Chapel Hill. Even with bad overall and conference records, Edwards
was a hero because of beating UNC.
Doeren
and the Wolfpack were 20-28 (41.7%) in the ACC his first six seasons, 2013-2018.
With a 1-5 ACC record this year (at this writing), the head coach has a 38.9%
winning mark in the league. The last two 2019 games—at Georgia Tech (2-8, 1-6) this
week and at home Thanksgiving weekend against North Carolina (4-6, 3-4 with a
home game against Mercer this week)—are not going to be easy. To the surprise
of many, the Wolfpack could win both, post records of 6-6 and 3-5, go to a bowl
game, declare the season success, and pay Doeren a bonus. Or the Wolfpack could
lose both or split, obviously.
In any event, Doeren’s record in conference
games is not good and could get worse. The season appears headed to a somewhat
meaningful clash with the Tar Heels. If both N.C. State and UNC win this week,
the November 30 game will be a qualifier for a post-season bowl game. If that’s
the case, that game could be the ultimate Toilet Bowl: two teams with
losing records trying to get a sixth win to qualify just so the team can
practice another three weeks and have a recruiting edge over the other.
The Wolfpack could lose both at Georgia
Tech and to UNC at home, handing Doeren a 1-7 league mark, a bookend to his 0-8
start his freshman year, 2013. If that’s the case, Doeren’s Wolfpack teams will
be 21-35 in seven years of ACC play, a 37.5% winning percentage, better but
nearly exact to Edwards in seven years except Doeren doesn’t have an ACC title.
To his credit, Doeren is 4-2 against UNC. A loss drops that to 4-3, same as
Edwards. Even if N.C. State wins out, the ACC record would be 23-33 (41.1%).
So, why
would anyone hope Doeren turns out to be as good a coach as Edwards?
From
1961 through 1970, Edwards’s Wolfpack was 42-33 (62.7%) in conference games and
won four conference titles (1963, 1964, 1965, and 1968). If Doeren can match
those numbers and titles, retiring in the summer of 2030 would send him out
with lots of love. However, in the next 10 seasons, 2020 through 2029, Doeren’s
Wolfpack must win 50 of 80 league games, an average yearly mark of 5-3, to
match Edwards's final 10 years percentage. But that would not be good enough to win an
ACC title much less get to the ACC title game so there would need to be at
least four very good seasons and several down years. In his first seven years, Doeren’s
ACC average is 3-5. Records of 5-3 for the next 10 seasons would be a huge
turn-around, but still mediocre in the ACC.
The 2019
pre-season Wolfpack hype gave fans hope for a much better season than what has
transpired, especially after back-to-back overall 9-4 records and 6-2 and 5-3
ACC marks the last two seasons. There were predictions of at least eight wins,
maybe nine, and some prognosticators said there could be 10 or 11 wins, even
with inexperience at quarterback. Those projections, of which little or no
objections came from within the football program, included three cupcake
non-conference games and a Power 5 game at West Virginia, a team that pummeled
the Wolfpack, 44-27, but has proven (4-6, 2-5 after 10 games) to be as bad as N.C.
State.
There has
been some worthwhile reasoning offered along the way: the team is young, and
injuries have weakened the squad, and he lost some key coaches. But this is
Doeren’s seventh season. That’s seven recruiting classes in a program that has
established itself as a pipeline of top-rated NFL picks. Shouldn’t there be
many more upperclassmen than the roster shows; how about better depth than
shown on the field? And, if Doeren is a good head coach, losing assistants to
other programs shouldn’t matter so much.
Much of
Doeren’s recruiting success (and he has been successful especially with North
Carolina talent) has been directly related to the downfall of football in
Chapel Hill. But with UNC coach Larry Fedora out and Mack Brown in, that bus of
out recruiting the Tar Heels has left the station and may not return.
From his start in Raleigh, Doeren
has portrayed N.C. State as a program that works hard and gets dirty. But during
the embarrassing 44-10 loss at Wake Forest and a second half defensive collapse
in a 34-20 loss at home against Louisville, Doeren, through the eyes of
television, looked like a deer in staring into headlights, not knowing which
way to go. That will turn off recruits as fast as Brown will gather them in.
Brown as already flipped two Wolfpack commitments this year. Are there are more
to come?
Last March, Doeren was awarded a
new five-year contract, a base salary of $1.625 million, matched by media
rights holders and equipment suppliers boosting him over $3.2 million
annually, a stupid amount to pay a football coach with an ACC average of 3-5. In a statement provided by N.C. State after
the new contract—negotiated by then athletics director Debbie Yow, agreed to by
Chancellor Randy Woodson, and rubber-stamped by the NCSU Board of Trustees and
the UNC Board of Governors—was announced, Doeren said in part, “…we’re excited
with what we’re building with N.C. State football…”
Doren’s ACC percentage is 9th best of the 12 head coaches at NC State since 1953 when the league was formed. No
one should be excited about that. Pointing to overall season records and bowl
games is okay if you wish to go down that road, but the Wolfpack’s
non-conference schedules have included many weak sisters. Going to
a bowl game is as easy as scheduling six wins, three or four non-league games and being 2-6 or 3-5 in the ACC. It’s hard not to go to a bowl game if you’re a member of the ACC.
If Doeren is locked in as head
football coach, Wolfpack fans should hope he turns out to be as good as Edwards.
Dreaming of success such as of when Lou Holtz and Bo Rein combined for 31 ACC
wins against 13 losses and two ties in eight straight seasons, 1972-1979, and
won the Wolfpack’s last two ACC titles appears to be out of the question. Dick
Sheridan (31-18-1) was the last Wolfpack coach to be above .500 against ACC
teams, but Mike O’Cain (26-30), Chuck Amato (25-31), Tom O’Brien (22-26), and
even Monte Kiffin (8-10) did better percentage-wise than has Doeren thus far.
Trying times for N.C. State
football? Absolutely. This year anyway. Check back for an update after the 2029
season, Doeren’s 17th at N.C. State, if you can image that, even for
that fleeting millisecond. Or maybe check back after the 2019 season-ender against
the Tar Heels. To a fault, Wolfpack fans are forgiving of coaches that beat UNC
no matter what happens in other games that season. If the Wolfpack wins that
game, Doeren will ride off the field on his players shoulders and there will
probably be a contract extension waiting for him.
Yes, considering everything, these are trying times for Wolfpack football fans.
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| Click to enlarge and read. |
It has been said, by many wise men not in a position of truth, that one game
does not a season make. But, this week, for Wolfpack fans, a win by N.C. State over its arch-rival,
North Carolina, will go a long way of healing a dismal and trying season of
football.
