What's ahead for N.C. State Wolfpack football? Head Coach Dave Doeren returns for 8th season; Interesting, tough 2020 schedule looms

Wolfpack AD Boo Corrigan

            Is the writing on the wall for Dave Doeren?
            Lest you live in a vacuum, all it takes is a little reading between the lines of a statement from N.C. State’s athletics director Boo Corrigan in which he spouts typical post-season support of his head football coach, who just completed his seventh season (4-8 overall and 1-7 in the Atlantic Coast Conference) with the Wolfpack.

            “The conclusion of a season is a time to reflect, look in the mirror and evaluate the overall direction of the program,” said Corrigan, just seven months on the job in Raleigh, in the December 2 statement. “Dave Doeren is our football coach. He has earned it by winning nine games in back-to-back seasons and I look forward to doing all I can to help. The 2019 season didn’t unfold the way any of us wanted but we will continue to invest in this program, and to provide the resources to help N.C. State football compete at the highest level.”

Wolfpack football coach Dave Doeren

            Part of the “help” required to “compete at the highest level” was a staff change. Instead of breaking Doeren’s contract at a fee of more than $6.6 million and looking for another head coach, defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable was shown the door. He’s owed just $800,000 for the single year remaining on his contract. Firing of an assistant, especially a coordinator, happens often when a head coach is on the hot seat and when coach is told to make staff changes if he wants to stay.

            As far as competing at the highest level, it shouldn’t take much for Doeren to move upward because being at the bottom means upward (or status quo, unfortunately) is the only way to go. After seven seasons in Raleigh, Doeren has a 21-35 ACC record. The 1-7 mark this year and his 0-8 record in 2013 landed the Wolfpack in dead last both seasons in what many football experts say is the weakest from top to bottom of the Power 5 conferences: ACC, Southeastern, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12.

            In between the first and last seasons, Doeren coached the Wolfpack to three straight 3-5 conference records and then jumped up to 6-2 and 5-3. Corrigan’s stated reason for retention was about overall wins in seasons 2017 and 2018. Hopefully for Wolfpack fans, improvement will mean winning at least four ACC games sooner than later, though the fan base deserves better.

            The 2020 season doesn’t get any easier for the Wolfpack, even if its personnel is healthy and talented, both of which are to be seen.

            For starters, next fall, it appears N.C State, coming off a dismal 2019 season, will open the on the road in an ACC match-up. If that holds true, and with a home game against Mississippi State set for the next weekend, the Wolfpack will have to get much better faster or there could be a 2019 repeat in 2020.

            More on the schedule a few paragraphs later.

            After the Wolfpack’s 2019 final game last Saturday, a miserable and embarrassing 41-10 loss at home to North Carolina, The News & Observer columnist Luke DeCock, in his post-mortem column, summed up N.C. State’s game performance and future:

There’s none of (UNC’s post-game) optimism at N.C. State, where the Wolfpack dropped its sixth straight to close out a difficult, injury-plagued season at 4-8. Even if fully healthy, it’s hard to see any obvious areas of automatic improvement next season, especially given the quarterback situation, and Dave Doeren already reshuffled his staff after last season, always the hole card of a coach with few other options.

N.C. State has certainly had its moments in this rivalry under Doeren, but with the inroads North Carolina has made on the recruiting trail under (coach Mack) Brown and the Wolfpack in a rebuilding process of indeterminate length, the gap between the programs at the moment appears to be as big as Saturday’s final score.

            If what DeCock writes holds true, that’s not exactly heart-warming for the Wolfpack program, especially for the fans who should and rightfully expect much better from the program and from the coach who will be entering his 8th season. Unfortunately, that seven-year 21-35 record against ACC brethren is a just plain lousy, ninth worst among the 12 head coaches N.C. State has had since 1953 when the ACC was formed.

            So here comes 2020.

Instead of suffering in the heat and humidity of a Labor Day weekend game in Raleigh’s Carter-Finley Stadium, the Wolfpack—according to schedules of the 2020 season found on the website FBschedules.com—could open at Clemson, at Louisville, or at Syracuse on the first weekend in September.

Or, not play that weekend at all and then be without an open date for the next 12 weeks.

N.C. State’s non-conference games are Sept. 12 (Mississippi State, home), Sept. 19 (at Troy), Sept. 26 (Delaware, home), and Nov. 21 (Liberty, home).

Schedules for Clemson, Louisville and Syracuse, along with Georgia Tech, which is not on the Wolfpack’s calendar, do not have games scheduled (according to the FBschedules.com site) for Labor Day weekend. That usually means playing a conference game that weekend, but with five of 14 conference teams not scheduled for Labor Day, and since only four teams could meet that weekend, something will change between now and when the official ACC schedule is published in January, maybe.

            While using spring practice to improve current personnel and using part of pre-season camp to determine the role of incoming freshmen, there will be at least one week of preparation for the opening game, especially important to get off on the right foot in conference play, the season’s first game. One week may not be enough, and with N.C. State’s young team (again next fall, though it shouldn’t be as young as touted in 2019), time is simply not on the Wolfpack’s side.

            After Labor Day is the home game with Mississippi State which was 6-6, 3-5 in the Southeastern Conference in 2019. It’s a Power 5 matchup that’s program-establishing for both teams. The Bulldogs open the season the previous week against New Mexico which was 2-10 in 2019. An easier opener, it seems, than the Wolfpack’s.

            Two of the three remaining non-conference games will not be effortless. The Wolfpack travels to Troy in game three. The Trojans were 5-7 overall and 3-3 in the Sun Belt Conference. In addition to hosting N.C. State, Troy plays at Tennessee in 2020.

            The easiest game for 2020 should be at home against Delaware, another 5-7, 3-5 (Colonial Athletic Association) team. The Liberty game in late November, a week prior to the end of the season, is supposed to be a breather game before playing at North Carolina, if the Wolfpack and Tar Heels keep the Thanksgiving weekend spot on the ACC schedule. The two schools jointly requested that a few years ago, but in nine of 10 seasons of Mack Brown’s first stint at UNC, the Tar Heels and Duke played the last regular season game for each team. Will Brown want to return to that long-time tradition? It’s a good question to ask.

            Liberty, FBS independent, was 7-5 in 2019 with one win against New Mexico and two versus Mexico State, one in Las Cruces and one in Lynchburg. A game late in the season will not be easy for the Wolfpack, especially if there’s a losing streak underway and with that game in Chapel Hill pending.

            Speaking of Duke, the Blue Devils and the Wolfpack renew their rivalry for the first time since 2013, a game Duke won 38-20 in Durham. Duke also won, 49-28, in Carter-Finley Stadium in 2009. In 2008, State won, 27-17, at Wallace Wade “Outdoor” Stadium. N.C. State and Duke did not play 2004-2007, but the Blue Devils and the Wolfpack, about 30 miles apart, had played every season starting with the 1945 game and through 2003.

Overall, Duke leads the series, 41-36-5. This will be just the third game between Duke and State in 17 seasons, and that’s not just a shame; it’s a damn shame. What was once a good rivalry game has turned into just another conference game because of ACC expansion. No matter the date of the game, it will be a tough one for the Wolfpack.

            Duke, a home game for N.C. State, takes the place of Georgia Tech on the Wolfpack’s 2019 schedule. The remaining games are the same as last year with conference home games against Boston College, Florida State, and Wake Forest, and games at Clemson, Louisville, Syracuse, and North Carolina. Of those seven divisional games, maybe a win against Boston College can be penciled in; the other six will be toss-ups at best. State will not be favored.

            With just 13 weeks of regular season games in 2020, it’s likely the Wolfpack’s open date will be either October 17 or 24, the two Saturdays when the North Carolina State Fair is scheduled. The other State Fair date will be used for an away game. So, look for the Wolfpack’s schedule to have two home games in September, three in October and two in November, or something similar.

On the surface, the Wolfpack could and should win at least three non-conference games. If the team wins all four, no matter what happens Labor Day weekend, overall the team is looking at another losing season and a way-down-the-line finish in the ACC.

Hopefully not.

In Doeren’s second season, N.C. State was 7-5 overall regular season record and 3-5 in the ACC. Don’t expect much more than that in 2020, and maybe less.

What is the writing on the wall for Dave Doeren? Yes, Doeren won nine games in his fifth and sixth seasons, and yes, his team made it to five straight bowl games. But in total, the football program has been mediocre at best, especially when looking at the 21-35 ACC record.

So, as far as the writing on the wall is concerned, Wolfpack fans want to know but only Doeren and Corrigan have the answer.